

The way I had the answer explained to me was that for each coin, with three coin tosses, there are 2 X 2 X 2 = 8 possibilities. (For the two headed coin, you can't tell the sides apart, but they are still two separate outcomes) That makes 16 total possibilities when you consider both coins. Out of all those possibilities, 9 of them have three heads, and 8 of those 9 are the two-headed coin, making the answer 8/9. (Rounded to two decimal places, that becomes 0.89)

Back when I was in high school, that answer filled me with rage and I argued with my math teacher that the answer should be 1/2, because the act of flipping the coin is independent of the act of choosing the coin, so the results of the coin flip shouldn't affect the probability of which coin you chose. His response was to say, "well, what if the coin comes up tails? Then the chance that you picked the two-headed coin becomes zero, which means the result of the coin flip *does* affect the probability of the coin you chose!"
I have to admit that he has a point, but that answer has still never really sat well with me and I have similar feelings about the Sunday girl puzzle. I guess I just don't really like probability problems; they mess with my feelings of common sense.
